As 2025 moves toward its close, more international organizations and major financial institutions have raised their expectations for China’s economic performance. The adjustments reflect growing confidence that China’s recovery has gained traction and that policy support is beginning to translate into sustained momentum.
Goldman Sachs was among the first to revise its outlook, releasing a report in late November that lifted its forecast for China’s 2025 real GDP growth from 4.9 percent to 5 percent. The report also pointed to stronger prospects for China’s exports in the coming years. According to the bank’s researchers, real export growth could reach between 5 percent and 6 percent annually, a significant upgrade from previous estimates of 2 percent to 3 percent. They attributed this improvement to China’s expanding global market share and the resilience of its manufacturing sector, which continues to gain competitiveness in key industries.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development followed with an updated projection on December 2, raising its 2025 GDP forecast for China from 4.9 percent to 5 percent. The OECD said the adjustment reflects China’s role as an important stabilizing force in the global economy at a time when many countries face weaker domestic demand and persistent inflation pressures. It highlighted China’s expansionary fiscal measures, including policies designed to support household incomes, stimulate consumption and encourage the replacement of vehicles and home appliances.
Several other global institutions have also expressed optimism about the scale and flexibility of China’s policy tools. Xiong Yi, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank, said that China’s recent intensification of fiscal policy, particularly a new policy based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan, is expected to deliver strong support for domestic demand through the end of this year and into early 2026. He noted that these measures could help stabilize investment and strengthen confidence among businesses and consumers.
Morgan Stanley, in its latest research update, projected moderate but steady growth in 2026, driven by targeted policy easing, gradual rebalancing of the economy and efforts to keep inflation under control. The bank said it expects China’s macroeconomic environment to remain supportive as the government prioritizes stability and long term structural improvements.
In addition, the BRICS New Development Bank announced on December 5 that it had issued a three year Panda bond worth 3 billion yuan in China’s interbank bond market. With this issuance, the bank’s total Panda bond volume in China has reached 78.5 billion yuan. The institution said the move reflects strong investor interest and underscores China’s role as a major hub for emerging market financing.
Despite global uncertainty, China’s economic foundations remain intact, according to a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics. The spokesperson said the country continues to benefit from resilient growth drivers, steady progress in high quality development and significant long term potential.
